By Josef Braml

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It was no coincidence that the governing coalition in Germany broke up on the day Donald Trump's election victory was announced. The then finance minister and leader of the FDP, Christian Lindner, stuck to the austerity program, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) could no longer ignore the fact that Trump's return to the White House required a dramatic realignment of Germany's post-war foreign policy, which costs a lot of money.

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Unfortunately, Scholz and his predecessor Angela Merkel (CDU) allowed a valuable eight years to elapse in which they could have prepared Germany and Europe for foreseeable developments. While Merkel recognized that Germany would “no longer be able to rely on others,” she took no action to adequately protect Germany's security and prosperity.

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It is now up to Friedrich Merz, Merkel's long-standing party rival and future chancellor, to make up for the failures and lead Germany and Europe into a new world order without Pax Americana. This will be all the more difficult as the new US president has not only terminated the transatlantic commitment, but also wants to destroy the other pillar of German foreign policy, European unity. By supporting certain anti-European parties in various EU countries, Trump and his aides J.D. Vance and Elon Musk seem to be trying to create divisions within Europe in the sense of a “divide et impera” in order to gain more influence over the individual components.

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Every crisis offers an opportunity. Trump's “America First” nationalism could force Europe to address its strategic weaknesses and adapt to a multi-polar world. Europe will have to defend its interests against the United States, as Trump is taking a transactional approach with other powers.

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Joint debt could support Europe's defense and finance Ukraine's reconstruction by balancing military and social spending (vulgo: guns versus butter). Instead of using their foreign exchange reserves and savings to invest in US debt and strengthen the world power's military-industrial complex, European countries and investors could focus on strengthening their currency, security capabilities, digital infrastructure, and future technologies.

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Given the huge US government debt, a deep, liquid market for safe EU bonds would offer international investors the opportunity to diversify risks. They could park their money in euro denominated bonds instead of US bonds. With a growing government deficit and rising interest rates, the fiscal situation in the USA is becoming increasingly unsustainable. By investing its capital reserves in the euro and strengthening Europe economically and militarily, the “old” continent could prepare itself for a world of heightened geo-economic and geopolitical competition.

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In this new world order, which is characterized by risks, only European unity can offer the necessary market power and options for action to ensure the continent's self-determination. Prior to Trump's return to the White House, however, terms such as “strategic independence” and “autonomy” only concealed the EU's inadequate decision-making and competencies in urgent need of reform.

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If Europeans really seize this historic opportunity, then they should also have the courage to win Trump for the Charlemagne Prize (which has been awarded since 1950 for services to European unification, ed.) to nominate. In order not to hurt his feelings, he should be honored solely for helping Europeans overcome their nationalist vanities — even though Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping will certainly have played their part through threats and actions.

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Josef Braml is European Director of the international think tank Trilaterale Kommission (Trilateral Commission). The political scientist is a proven US expert, worked in large US think tanks and as legislative advisor to the US House of Representatives. For the book “The American Patient,” he received the renowned getAbstract International Book Award for business literature at the Frankfurt Book Fair. Together with Mathew Burrows, one of the leading US security experts, he wrote the recently published book “World to Come — The Return of Trump and the End of the Old Order.”

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