A commentary by Eberhard Sandschneider, Berlin

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There is hardly a critical compliment that has not yet been put around Donald Trump's neck. Erratic, self-absorbed, egotistical — the list could be extended indefinitely. Only one thing is certain: the American president is not a diplomat, but a blackmailer. His credo of wanting to make deals follows the simple logic of making maximum demands at the expense of others in order to be able to negotiate a better situation for himself or his country afterwards. His threats, particularly against weaker states, follow a well-known imperialist, even colonialist logic. It should gradually become clear to those affected — particularly Europeans — that this is a fundamental change in geopolitical relationships.

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The days of transatlantic nostalgia and reliability are over. They probably won't be back either. The leading western power is abandoning its role, is becoming isolationist, increasingly imperialistic, and treats former allies just as poorly as their alleged or actual opponents. Anyone who still dreams of a transatlantic community of values hasn't heard the shot. Talking nice to a blackmailer has never helped. The only language Trump and his company seem to understand is the language of political and economic power. Anyone who engages in negotiations confirms the dealmaker — and has already lost.

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Much of the current geopolitical discussion in Germany is still characterised by a glorification of transatlantic dream worlds and is now quite obviously characterised by simplicity. In addition to the all-round strikes of the American administration, geopolitical shifts are also being observed with great attention in other parts of the world. Russia is doing so, China is doing so. Not to mention the rest of the world. Even from the perspective of the so-called “global South,” the signs of geopolitical opportunities are changing. And not everyone necessarily sees the US government's action against the globalization patterns of recent decades as a disadvantage.

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Anyone who wants to face Trump's escapades with the prospect of success must be no more squeamish in choosing their partners as Trump is when choosing his threatening gestures. Despite all considerations about resuming energy policy cooperation, Russia is not a suitable partner as long as the Russian President can count on being able to achieve his maximum goals in Ukraine — also at the expense of Europe — with the help of the USA. If the goal is to persuade the American administration to rethink its geopolitical and geo-economic disruption, only a clear hint of the fence post will probably help. Despite all differences in issues of values with a country like China, selective cooperation with the aim of averting American tariff policy could probably make an impression in Washington after all.

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Ingratiation can't be the answer

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Trump's tariff policy came as no surprise to China itself. The country was therefore able to react quickly with countermeasures. Beijing knows that the real aim of MAGA is to contain China.The interest in closer cooperation with Europe is correspondingly high. In order to ward off the expected American pressure, China has been signaling a great interest in deepening cooperation with Europe for some time. What is missing is a constructive response from Europe to these offers. The traffic light government's German foreign policy was rather counterproductive in its value-driven overload on this issue. Now is the time to fundamentally rethink this policy.

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However, cooperation with individual countries such as China would probably not even be enough: A courageous European and German response to Trump would have to consist of multilateral, concerted action that also makes it clear to the ideologues in the White House that the US is part of a global economy that undermining it fundamentally contradicts the vital interests of its own country. It would be worth a try before the consequences of American policy finally push Germany's economy into the geo-economic sidelines. However, it is unlikely that such cooperation will materialise in the long term. It is already becoming apparent that almost all those concerned are first considering their own reactions before looking for allies. The ingratiation of Vietnam and Cambodia, as well as China's harsh reaction, are good examples of expected attempts to satisfy or counter the blackmailer. Ultimately, this may even be Trump's simple calculation: Divide and rule, is a principle that is also quite familiar to other global powers.

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Germany will therefore have to learn to put aside its transatlantic nostalgia and guarantee its security and secure its economic future without the support of the USA. Those who wish can console themselves with the thought that all these processes could be reversed once the American furore has subsided. Until then, however, sober realism and, if necessary, merciless pragmatism are the order of the day. China is certainly a partner for such a policy in order to counter the ‘systemic rival’ USA.

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Prof. Dr. Eberhard Sandschneider is considered one of the most renowned experts on East Asia and held a chair in Chinese Studies and International Relations at Freie Universität Berlin from 1998. From 2003 to 2016, he was director of the research institute of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). He is now a partner at the geopolitical consulting firm Berlin Global Adviser. Among other things, he wrote the book “Global Rivals: China's Uncanny Rise and the Helplessness of the West”

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