By Gudrun Dometeit

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Ever heard of a new unit of time? Hey, it's Trump time! Foreign policy events in the near future will have to be measured in this way. “You get an assignment and the next day you will be asked whether it has been fulfilled,” said Keith Kellogg, the new US president's Ukraine representative at the Munich Security Conference last weekend.

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It was just seven days ago, from Donald Trump's telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, to the sharp criticism of Europe by Vice President J.D. Vance, to the first Russian-American peace talks in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. In this one week, the USA just terminated the previous transatlantic partnership and ended the three-year isolation of Russia since the start of the Ukraine war - without advance payment. Ukrainians and Europeans were expressly not welcome at the negotiating table. “Seven days that shook Europe” comes to mind in reference to a famous book about the Russian Revolution of 1917. Consciences about alliances, security, diplomacy and order — all perdue. And no new ones in sight. If only because of Trump time, the European Union is not the fastest.

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Donald Trump is currently turning diplomatic negotiations upside down, the details of which are usually worked out by teams from all sides in long rounds, culminating in a summit meeting with the signing of an agreement. Trump, on the other hand, wants to meet Putin as soon as possible; he legitimizes the aggressor in the Ukraine conflict before concluding an agreement. Even after his phone call a week ago, the US president flattered his Russian counterpart: “We both reflected on the great history of our nations and the fact that we fought together so successfully in the Second World War.” The discussion also focused on the normalization of bilateral relations and the Middle East. Putin must have felt like a shawm music, he is getting what he always wanted above all else and the US governments under Barack Obama and Joe Biden denied him: recognition of Russia's role as a great power and talks on equal footing with the USA.

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But Putin too now knows how to get Trump wrapped around his finger. Kirill Dmitriyev, head of the state-owned Russian Direct Investment Fund, campaigned in Riyadh for the return of American oil companies and lured with access to raw materials in the Arctic. Dmitriyev is Putin's best man for the job: trained at Harvard and Stanford, former employee of Goldmann Sachs and McKinsey, global leader of the World Economic Forum in Davos. In 2017, he apparently wanted to establish an unofficial channel of conversation with Trump, but had to give up this as part of the investigation into alleged Russian interference in the US elections. If you accept Trump's demands on Ukraine to transfer half of the profits from the exploitation of rare metals to the USA as compensation for support, you occasionally ask yourself whether it is still about peace at all or just about the economy.

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There will be no lasting peace in Ukraine without security guarantees from the West. It is the most important question, and at the same time the most controversial. If it's up to Trump, the Europeans should set up their own peacekeeping force. Not only has Moscow rejected this so far, but also a large proportion of Europeans. Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski estimated at an event organized by the German Society for Foreign Policy, that it would bring together at most 30,000 soldiers. But how should they protect the 1200 kilometers long line of contact between Ukraine and Russia? Such a “trip wire” would not work without protection. According to another idea, the Ukrainian army could be supported by long-range weapons in a NATO country or even by stationing them in Ukraine itself - with the condition that they only be used when necessary. In Munich, a Republican senator proposed the automatic termination of NATO membership as soon as Russia violates agreements. Little was heard from European politicians apart from the well-known phrases that Ukraine must win, that Europe must be united, Putin cannot be trusted. “It cannot be that Russia gets the Ukrainian territories, the USA the mineral resources and Europe pays the bill for peacekeeping. That doesn't work. We must mobilize our strength now,” said Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative. Putin must continue to be isolated and sanctioned. But — the concept hasn't worked so far, why now that the USA is heading in a completely different direction?

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Wouldn't it make more sense for Europe to define its own interests and finally present a concrete plan to stop the unspeakable bloodshed in Ukraine? And maybe even think about a future collective security system? The 50th anniversary of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe in August would be a good reason for this. At the time, the signing was considered a milestone in the policy of détente between East and West. Europe's clear ideas about a roadmap would be good if only because, at Trump's pace, it's only enough to reach a ceasefire. It should be closed by Easter (April 20). Most peace negotiations in history took years, and ceasefires were often just tactical interruptions in a war like in Vietnam, where the South and North attacked again and again, even after an agreement in 1973, when they felt strong enough. The war only ended 27 months later in 1975.

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And a word about the speech by US Vice President Vance, which caused so much outrage at the Munich Security Conference. He accused Europeans of restricting free speech and disregarding the votes of right-wing populist voters, especially in Germany. “The real threat is not Russia or China but comes from within when Europe withdraws from its own values.” Vance also met with AfD boss Alice Weidel. “Insolence” was also my first reflex. What can the Americans think of interfering in the German election campaign! Others spoke of a transatlantic epochal turn and the proclamation of a cultural struggle against liberal democracies. It's all kind of right. But aren't we Europeans also so indignant because we see ourselves as true guardians of morals and international norms? We have put values in place of interests, and of course they cannot be discussed, at least not with dissenters, not with Russians, not with right-wing populists. The speechlessness is not only unprofessional, it harms European interests.

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In all the excitement, one person remained cool: Finnish President Alexander Stubb advised all conference participants to go to the sauna first, then take an ice bath and then think again in peace. For Finns, the sauna is not only a place to sweat, but also a place to solve all problems in life. Europeans could probably benefit from a permanent subscription right now.

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