‍

Recent developments in North Korea's close ties with Russia are alarming. The North Korean supplies of rockets and artillery to Russia, combined with Russia's current overt “pro-North Korea” stance, which ignores international sanctions, are initially an important event in relations between Russia and North Korea. In addition, Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea (after 24 years!) and the new Russian-North Korean treaty appear to be the result of mutual interests.

North Korea wants to evade China

What is particularly surprising, however, is that North Korea is trying to use Russia as a shield in order to escape the influence of its guardianship state of China.

China has so far shown no significant public reaction, but has been actively working to “discipline” North Korea since it clearly disregards China and shows pro-Russian tendencies.

‍

China reacts sharply internally

Internally, China is strictly enforcing sanctions against North Korea, tightening smuggling controls and delaying the opening of the border between North Korea and China. In addition, China is imposing exit and entry restrictions on North Koreans, urging North Korean workers in China to return to their homes, and generally acts uncooperatively to increase its influence over North Korea.

Furthermore, the removal of the “footprint plaque” to commemorate the summit meeting between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un of 2018 and the acceptance of the summit between the Republic of Korea, Japan and China as well as the foreign and security policy dialogue between the Republic of Korea and China are a clear indication of China's stance.

‍

Russian TV movies instead of Chinese

Against this background, it is particularly surprising how severe the backlash from North Korea against China is. North Korea canceled planned sports meetings with China, tightened controls on Chinese descendants and stopped payments in yuan at markets.

The television program, which was previously dominated by Chinese films, has now been replaced by Russian films. State media such as Rodong Sinmun, who had previously emphasized the “blood alliance” with China, stopped reporting on China.

‍

Diplomats should ignore China

There are even rumours that Kim Jong-un has instructed North Korean diplomats in China not to pay too much attention to China.

North Korea's unprecedented retaliation against China may seem unusual, but it is likely to be solely a decision and strategy by Kim Jong-un himself. Kim is disillusioned with China as the Middle Kingdom — despite its constant rhetoric about an “alliance as tight as teeth and lips” — has failed to provide adequate economic support due to its cautious attitude towards the US.

‍

Russia as an alternative

As a result, he has turned to Russia as an alternative to revive the stagnating economy through increased exchanges between North Korea and Russia and to seek technological support to develop nuclear and missile capabilities. However, there is a deeper strategic level at play here: the goal of using Russia as a channel for improving relations with the US.

The world is currently closely watching the upcoming US presidential elections in November. After Donald Trump having barely escaped an assassination attempt, his second term of office is within reach. His possible second term in office is expected to prioritize ending the war between Russia and Ukraine and stepping up efforts against China.

‍

Kim hopes for Trump and Putin

It is very likely that the “bromance,” the intimate relationship between Trump and Putin, will be revived through a compromise of pragmatic advantage and prestige. Kim Jong-un is likely to continuously woo Trump over Russia. Kim imagines a “trilateral bromance” in which he teams up with Trump and Putin, who position themselves as a “strong man.”

‍

Guarantee of dictatorship

Kim understands better than anyone else that only Trump can guarantee his dictatorial power. As a result, as long as there is no firm commitment from the US, North Korea will remain resilient to international criticism on issues such as nuclear weapons, human rights and missiles. Instead, the North Korean leadership will focus on strengthening internal controls even more while intensifying the cult of leadership around Kim Jong-un. In doing so, he wants to maintain his dictatorship.

At the moment, North Korea has nothing left but its pride. The fact that it is now relying on the “Russia card” instead of the “China card” in order to ultimately bet on the USA reflects how desperate Kim must be in the face of the regime crisis.

‍

South Korea is more important for Russia

However, as soon as the Russia-Ukraine war is over, Kim will have to recognize that his “wishful thinking” was nothing more than an illusion and fantasy. Russia will prioritize economic cooperation with South Korea and is likely to abandon North Korea, which has nothing to offer.

‍

Isolated existence

In addition, once North Korea escapes China's influence, it will become a secondary problem for the US. Ultimately, North Korea will face a future in which it is disregarded by both China and Russia and neglected by the US. This is an integral part of North Korea's isolated existence. Kim should quickly realize that he is like a frog that is slowly boiled alive in hot water.

The author of the analysis, Chung Eui-sung, is a North Korean defector. He had served as a police officer in North Korea for many years. When his cousin was executed for political reasons, he fled to South Korea to avoid collective punishment. He resumed his education in South Korea and earned a doctorate in North Korean studies. He is now director of the World Institute for North Korea Studies. Because of North Korean threats against him and his family, he is refraining from public activities. The analysis in diplo.news is an exception.

‍