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The largest island, the largest state in terms of area, one of the most important waterways in the world — Donald Trump cannot be accused of thinking small. He wants to take it all, Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal, by military means if necessary. In any case, he has not just publicly ruled this out. “The world is mine,” the future 47th President of the United States seems to be thinking. Just go shopping like you used to buy a skyscraper, a hotel, a golf club. And if necessary, push the price down with a little blackmail.

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You can find it all ridiculous, as a typical Trump show, as a bluster, as an expression of delusions of grandeur. Or, as local critics of the president-elect see the worst fears confirmed in such announcements. The truth is probably in between. Trump is not just about higher tariffs for Europe, Canada, Mexico and China or higher defense spending by Europeans. The latest statements are almost exemplary of the fact that the course of his entire foreign policy is consistently becoming more mercantile, as the former German ambassador to Washington, Emily Haber, recently predicted.

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The Republican had already cast coveted looks at Greenland — part of Denmark — during his first term of office. The melting of Arctic ice not only opens up valuable raw materials but also new shipping routes. He complained to Panama about excessively high canal fees. More control over the canal would also enable control over Chinese imports to the USA. In addition to the USA, China is the biggest user of this transport route. By the way: In 1999, the USA transferred the canal to Panama as “inalienable property.”

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But instead of working on Trump as a person or waiting like a rabbit on a snake for further demands, Europe must finally develop its own, new transatlantic strategy. One that outlasts Trump. One that says goodbye to the myths of everlasting friendship and acknowledges that even with regard to the USA, it is less and less about values and more about interests. In Germany in particular, however, the very question of interests is sometimes frowned upon because it sounds somehow selfish or nationalistic. And a common stance in Europe is all the more difficult as the attitude of the Eastern Europeans, Poland or the Baltic states, will be more lenient towards the USA than the rest of the EU - if only for the sake of military protection from Russia. An absolute Russia hardliner, the Estonian Kaja Kallas, as EU foreign affairs representative does not make things any easier.

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Of course, a German-French-Polish trio wants to travel to Washington immediately after Trump's election on January 20. And Emmanuel Macron is inviting them to a joint consultation meeting in February. But how long did the Europeans actually have to mentally prepare for a second Trump term in office? Exactly, four years. And has Joe Biden continued the America First policy? Right, just in a nicer package. And have Democrats and Republicans long agreed that competition with China has absolute priority and that Europeans must subordinate themselves to it in case of doubt? That is also correct.  

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Wasted time to find answers in time. Instead, Europe has now largely replaced Russian gas supplies with American liquefied natural gas. The USA supplies half of the LNG from which Germany in particular benefits - not a good starting point for future negotiations with a US president who understands foreign policy as dealing by any means necessary.  

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Gudrun Dometeit was a Moscow correspondent and national political correspondent in the Hamburg office of the German Press Agency (DPA). At Focus magazine, she headed the Foreign Affairs Department until 2024, and at times also the Department of Politics and Economics. Since the end of 2024, the political scientist and Slavist has been editor-in-chief of diplo.news.

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