By Michael Backfisch

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When looking at Washington, the motto will apply in the future: Nothing is as certain as uncertainty. When Donald Trump is sworn in as 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, certain principles will fall by the wayside. Trump is an isolationist who wants to keep the USA out of international crises, end “America's endless wars” and focus entirely on his own country, it was said time and again. It's a misunderstanding. Or a miscalculation.

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We now know: The slogan “Make America Great Again” in no way means a retreat to the USA. Behind the slogan lies a tough national interest policy on the international stage. America's economic advantage is becoming the ultimate motto of Trump's foreign policy. Intimidation and blackmail are among his instruments. The former New York real estate mogul has chosen the big deal, the political deal for the benefit of the USA, as the measure of all things.

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The parameters of Trump's foreign policy can be seen, at least in outline. A few days before the swearing-in, the future president is under maximum pressure and threat. The warnings to annex resource-rich Greenland if necessary, to take over the Panama Canal, which is important for merchant shipping, or to take over Canada as the 51st US state due to economic pressure, must be taken seriously.

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But would Trump really go that far? It's not completely out of the question, but it's unlikely. It is in the 78-year-old's nature to spread fear and terror in order to make a profit for his country. In the case of Greenland, this could be more rights to mine precious resources such as rare earths or uranium. Or other US military bases in the geopolitically explosive Arctic region. In the case of the Panama Canal, there could be lower charges for the passage of American ships.

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Both would also be offensive measures to curtail China's economic influence. Beijing operates a port terminal on the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Panama Canal, which is a thorn in Trump's side. In addition, China is ready to exploit mineral resources in Greenland. America, China and Russia are highly interested in Arctic shipping routes.

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The economic, political and military rise of the People's Republic, which could overtake America as a global power in the future, is seen by all parties in Washington as the biggest strategic challenge and threat. “Trump is basically concerned with clearly separating the USA from China in high-tech areas such as computer chips, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, robotics, satellite technology, including in many areas of the chemical and pharmaceutical industry,” says Klaus Larres from the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

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But pressure from Washington will also increase sharply towards Europe. With the threat of a tariff club of up to 20 percent, Trump wants to de facto force European companies to produce in the United States and create jobs. Trump has set the bar extremely high for NATO: Alliance members should spend five percent of their economic output on defense — a requirement that not even the USA has met to date at 3.4 percent.

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The future US president has repeatedly made it clear that he does not feel bound by the automatic nature of an alliance obligation under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. Europe's security is primarily a matter for Europeans, he stressed. However, if a deal for America emerges, the situation could look different: In the case of billions of dollars in arms orders from US defense companies, Trump would probably not be averse to setting up a protective shield across the continent. Military performance in exchange for cash is his motto. A model that he would probably also like to use with regard to Taiwan or South Korea. Whether Trump is actually playing with the idea of withdrawing from NATO, as in his first term of office, is an open question.

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With regard to the Ukraine war, Trump's position is clear: The military campaign should be ended as quickly as possible. There are already many indications that America will drastically reduce or even zero its military aid to Ukraine. The days when America stood out as the biggest supporter of Ukraine are over. The Biden administration had loosened more than 60 billion dollars for this. Should security guarantees be required for Ukraine or peacekeepers on a possible line of demarcation after a future ceasefire, Trump sees Europeans as having an obligation.

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The head of the White House has in mind an agreement at the highest level. It is no secret that he admires autocrats such as Russian President Vladimir Putin. Shortly before the start of the Ukraine war, he had described Putin as “brilliant” and “clever.” In Trump's logic, a breakthrough is best achieved through a tête-à-tête of political titans. “He wants us to meet, and we're in the process of organizing that,” the Republican said recently with a view to a meeting with the Kremlin leader. In Europe, many fear that a possible agreement will result in loss of territory for Ukraine.

There is much to suggest that Trump would be prepared to do just that in order to settle the war. The fact that the new special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has postponed his visit to Kiev planned for early January at short notice is not a good sign for the attacked country. Before the US presidential election, Kellogg had presented a plan to freeze the war and put Ukraine's NATO membership on the back burner.

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However, Ukrainians still have a glimmer of hope: They are counting on Trump's unpredictability. Because they know that the new US president would like nothing more than to be celebrated in front of the world press cameras as a great mediator who could even win the Nobel Peace Prize in the end. If Ukraine were to capitulate, he would look like a man who had sacrificed a country fighting for independence and freedom. He would not be able to reap any laurels. Putin would therefore have to make compromises to allow Trump to shine as a conflict resolver in a deal. If he fails to do so, he risks the head of the White House sending even more lethal and far-reaching weapons to Ukraine. The Ukrainians are clinging to this thread.

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In the Middle East, Trump will give Israel even more freedom than outgoing US President Joe Biden. Following the extensive destruction of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could also be encouraged to target the major terrorist supporter Iran. He has long dreamed of reducing the Iranian nuclear facilities to rubble and eliminating the threat of a nuclear bomb in the possession of the mullahs.

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Trump's policy on Iran was ambiguous in his first term. On the other hand, he emphasized that he was not seeking regime change. It cannot be ruled out that Trump will also try to reach an agreement with Iran in order to drastically restrict its nuclear program. He may bring Saudi Arabia on board at the price of minimal concessions to the Palestinians and an end to the Gaza war. In 2020, Trump proved that he can also land diplomatic coups with the Abraham Accords on rapprochement between Israel and Arab states such as Morocco and the United Arab Emirates.

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Nevertheless, the bottom line is that the old West is being laid to rest in the second Trump administration. The democratic community of values and alliance with America as the leading power is dead. International institutions have no meaning for Trump. The USA will withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO) and probably also from the Paris climate protection agreement. The domestic and foreign policy of the United States is subordinated to the principle of “America First”.

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The sooner the Europeans - and the future German government - adapt to this, the better. After all, the call for the defense of the “rules-based international order”, once the mantra of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, has faded. The call for a “values-led foreign policy”, which the Berlin coalition government had enshrined as an ethical corset in the coalition agreement, is passé.

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A new era of great powers begins. In future, the international arena will be dominated by the autocracies of China and Russia, as well as an America that Trump wants to transform into a semi-autocracy. The EU must reinvent itself if it does not want to be marginalized as an impotent club of states. If disunity and division prevail, it will become a pawn in the hands of the XXL players. “America First” is a wake-up call.

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